Long-term yields hit a 24-year high as stocks hold on

Good morning. The bond market had another rough day. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.57%, its highest in 24 years, and the 10-year has climbed sharply over four sessions. Falling oil and a relaxed-sounding Fed speech did nothing to stop the selling.

Behind it is a worry that nobody wants to buy bonds right now. Recent Treasury auctions were soft, and war and deficit fears are piling on. New York Fed President John Williams said the next hike can wait, which cooled bets on an October move, but Fed Governor Michael Barr pointed out that the AI building boom is pushing prices up. In other words, don't count on yields coming down easily.

Stocks looked calm on the surface. The Dow slipped 0.26% and the Nasdaq barely moved. But consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a sign that households are anxious about prices and jobs. The index sits near a record while a lot of individual stocks are already in bear-market territory, which is the uneasy balance markets are living with.

AI made noise too. Anthropic's IPO filing warned that advanced AI could pose serious risks, and Meta's new Muse agent sparked fears of disruption that sent stocks like Airbnb sharply lower.