Big tech held the index up through a bond shock

Sunday morning, and a look back at the week. The biggest story was the bond market. On Friday the 10-year yield touched 5.23% at one point, its highest in 19 years, since 2007, and the 30-year hit its highest since 2004 on Wednesday. One analyst argued that the huge volume of bonds being issued by governments and companies is as much a driver as inflation.

Stocks held up surprisingly well. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% on the week, and both the Magnificent Seven index and the Nasdaq 100 rose more than 3% to fresh records. The gains are concentrated in large tech names, though. Higher yields pulled money out of dividend stocks and REITs, and one analysis noted that companies posting the biggest earnings beats were often the worst trades.

The US-China summit produced eight agreements and an extended trade truce, but the thorniest issues, Taiwan, Iran and technology, stayed unresolved. Many called it more show than substance. One interesting twist is that chip stocks barely flinched at China news this time, because Nvidia's outlook already assumes zero China data-center sales.

The main event next week is the September jobs report. Schwab sees one more hike this year as certain and a second as very likely, so a strong number could tilt bets further toward more tightening. On Monday, USTR Greer will release details of the US-China deal, and news from the US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz will steer oil.