Oil jumps on Hormuz strike as Venezuela deal pulls the other way

A new week, and it opens with oil on the move. Over the weekend US forces hit two launch sites on Iran's Larak Island, inside the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped more than 2% back above $90. It is the first strike on Iran since late July.

There is a counterweight, though. President Trump announced a deal securing more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves and said the crude would be used to refill the depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The catch: six months into the Iran war, Gulf oil flows are still only about 40% of prewar levels, and most analysts doubt the Venezuela deal adds meaningful supply anytime soon.

The Fed backdrop has shifted too. After Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, the odds of a September rate hike climbed to nearly 60%, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points in a day. Last week's index gains also leaned heavily on seven big tech names, so the market underneath looked softer than the headline.

The big hurdle this week is Friday's August jobs report. Signs of cooling hiring clash with forecasts of a stronger-than-expected print, so this one number could decide whether a September hike gets locked in.