OPEC+ keeps pumping more, and Wall Street waits on Wednesday’s Fed minutes

Good morning. While U.S. markets were closed, the big news came from OPEC+, which agreed to raise output again in August for a fifth straight month. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering, and Gulf exports topped 10 million barrels a day, though that is still 40% below pre-war levels.

With oil suddenly plentiful, countries can rebuild their stockpiles more easily, and analysts say Iran’s leverage over the strait is fading. Calmer oil prices also ease inflation worries, which is welcome news for the Fed.

A quick look back at last week: the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Dow hit a record, but chip stocks lost more than 10% in two days. Futures are higher again on Sunday. Still, U.S. stock funds saw $17.2 billion leave in a week, and some warn that July could bring a sharp unwinding of the hottest trades.

Three things to watch this week: the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday, SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 on the 7th, and second-quarter earnings season, which kicks off with companies such as PepsiCo and Delta. One more summer wrinkle: Treasury bill issuance is expected to drain roughly $350 billion of liquidity from markets by mid-September.